Tuesday, March 16, 2004

Madrid 

The editorial pages are filled today with analysis of the election for Prime Minister in Spain and its impact on the war on terror. Frank Gaffney in The Washington Times, Robert Kagan and George Will in the Washington Post, and David Brooks in the New York Times all come to the conclusion that the behavior of the electorate is a big win for al Qaeda (with David Brooks, living up to my comments about him the other day, making the most cogent argument). However, I believe each of their opinions are slightly off the mark.

In this case the Washington Post editors come closest to framing the issue correctly in understanding what the voters were saying loud and clear the other day in Spain. They were reacting most strongly to their government's insistence that the killing of 200 people was the work of ETA, the Basque militant organization. But it was clear to me (and therefore clear to many people) that this was the work of al Qaeda. Ten different explosions timed to detonate simultaneously occurring exactly 911 days after our September 11th said that this was not the work of locals. A hint that the government was trying to hide the truth about this horrible event so as not to face criticism of its support for the war in Iraq tipped the scales in the minds of voters as to who should be in power.

The outcome of the election may have been different if Jose Maria Aznar had pointed right at al Qaeda and boldly asserted that his country would never allow murderers to dictate his nation's foreign policy. This stance may have allowed him to keep his job and, more importantly, made the world a much less dangerous place.

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